The weather this weekend was frightful

 Not scary, frightful, just frightful activity wise.

I got soaked coming home on Friday. I was following the weather and radar all day and was expecting thunderstorms here at work when I left for the day. It was bone dry, but the skies were darkening. All the way on the drive home, I could "feel" that darkness behind me, rather then see it in the rear view mirror. As luck would have it, as dark as it was, it didn't rain and I thought I would beat the storm home. As I got out of car in front of the house (I park on the street), there was a cloudburst. It began raining at a rate of over an inch an hour, with huge, heavy drops that actually hurt when they landed on my arms. I got drenched enough that I had to change clothes once I got inside.

That set the tone for the weekend's weather. It was so humid that the lawn didn't dry out all of Saturday, so we couldn't mow. And that was actually a good thing as the temperature/humidity index made it feel like it was over 100F. We probably would have ended p with heat exhaustion. I told my son that if worse comes to worse, we'll buy a sheep. HI! We ended up getting hit with more thunderstorms and about 0.69 inches of rain later in the afternoon. I was going to grill burgers for dinner, but had to resort to indoor cooking instead.

On Sunday, I got on HF for a little bit around 1:00 PM (17:00 UTC). The bands were a mess. I did not hear anyone on any band except for 20 Meters, where I heard a solitary station, NM8GS around 14.038 MHz. 

It was the light ship Huron that was on the air for Lighthouse and Lightship Weekend. They was calling CQ and I worked them easily on the first try.  That was when I looked up at HamClock and saw that the K Index was at 6.3. Argh! The bands were pretty much a wasteland. Speaking of which, I just recently downloaded the SpaceWeatherLive app onto my phone.

It's a freebie and you can find it in Google Play and the iTunes store. You can set it up so that you will be alerted whenever there's a solar flare or a CME. A good tool for those of us who are denizens of the HF bands. It was not difficult to understand why the bands were so noisy and dead at my QTH as I was getting alerts for M Class flares almost continuously!  One approached M7.2 on Saturday afternoon - almost X Class! I was also getting alerts that there were "minor" radio blackouts. Ha! They appeared to be a bit more than minor at my QTH!

I ended up using the time to fabricate my "new" drive on mast holder. I wanted to take pictures of it "in action" so to speak, but due to even more thunderstorms yesterday afternoon and early evening, that became an impossibility. Today is supposed to be dry all day, so maybe tonight I'll get the chance to get a few quick photos. I did something a little different this time and it's easier to explain with photos as a visual aid.

We ended up getting an additional 0.72 inches of rain yesterday, so we got over an inch and a half for the weekend. Up until recently, it's been a very dry Summer in South Plainfield. Whenever a heat wave broke with thunderstorms, it seemed they always skirted to either the north or south of us. We're making up for that now. Tomorrow evening there is a 605 chance of showers and thunderstorms, which I hope does not pan out. Tomorrow evening is National Night Out, and SPARC will be at the event, handing out literature promoting Amateur Radio to the community. I'd hate for rain to spoil the event.

Also, I've been keeping an eye on Hurricane Debby. It looks like as she winds up the East Coast, she'll be downgraded to a tropical storm, but there is potential for major flooding either Thursday or Friday.  Hurricane Ida is still fresh in my mind when we got 9" of rain in one day, just a few years back. We lost Marianne's car when the parking lot where she works became a lake that night. I don't want to go through that again!

72 de Larry W2LJ

QRP - When you care to send the very least!

Yikes !!!

 

A Coronal Mass Ejection (or other solar phenomena) has rendered the bands positively yucky today. But for the limited amount of time that I spent behind the key today, I still managed to snare six POTA stations for the log.

WD8RIF at US-1994

K2EAG at US-1619

KU8T at US-1637

WI2X at US-1611

AE4WX at US-6962

W0ABE at US-10533

All contact were made on 30 and 20 Meters. I heard EA4HCF calling CQ on 17 Meters and I tried answering, but no joy at 5 Watts. For the heck of it, I tried bumping up the KXPA100 to 85 Watts, just to see if I could make contact. Nope - that tells you that the bands truly did bite. I usually rarely have a problem reaching Spain with 5 Watts, let alone 85 Watts.

Last week the POTA powers-that-be changed all the designators from "KA" to "US". Earlier in the month, they changed Canada from "VE" to "CA" and all of Great Britain from "G" to "GB". Not exactly sure what was the reasoning, but I'm sure they had a good one.

It will be interesting to see if I hear anyone on the St. Max Net tonight on 75 Meters.

I was going to go out today and play around with the Buddistick on top of the Jeep, using that magmount  on which I replaced the coax cable. It's in the upper 40s and normally, that wouldn't be too terrible. We're getting a steady breeze and wind gusts that are making it downright uncomfortable to be outside. This is the day after that Nor'Easter blew through here yesterday, dropping 2.72 inches of rain on my QTH. I'm hoping that maybe next weekend will be warm enough for me to run some quick tests without allowing my hands to go numb.

72 de Larry W2LJ

QRP - When you care to send the very least!

Ol' Sol is getting frisky!

 The K7RA Solar Update

10/29/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspot activity was up this week, with the average daily sunspot number increasing by nearly five-fold from 11.3 to 54.9. Average daily solar flux rose from 78.6 to 95.7. Currently our sun is peppered with spots.

A new sunspot group appeared on October 22, another on October 24, two more on October 25, and another on October 26. The sunspot number peaked on Thursday, October 28, at 96, and daily solar flux peaked on the same day at 111.7.

Geomagnetic indicators were nice and quiet, but don’t expect that to last. Average daily planetary A index went from 8.4 to 4.4 and average daily middle latitude A index declined from 5.4 to 3.6.

Predicted solar flux looks quite promising, at 113 on October 29; 114 on October 30 – November 1; 110 and 105 on November 2 – 3; 100 on November 4 – 5; 86 on November 6 – 7; 85 on November 8 – 9; 83 on November 10; 82 on November 11 – 15; 85 on November 16 – 20; 94 on November 21; 95 on November 22 – 23; 96 on November 24; 95 on November 25 – 29; 92, 90, and, 88 on November 30 – December 2, and 86 on December 3 – 4.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 29; 40, 35, and 12 on October 30 – November 1; 5 on November 2 – 5; 12, 10, and 8 on November 6 – 8; 5 on November 9 – 14; 10 and 8 on November 15 – 16; 5 on November 17 – 22; 8 on November 23 – 24; 10 on November 25 – 26; 5 on November 27 – 28; 8 on November 29; 5 on November 30 – December 2, and 12, 10, and 8 on December 3 – 5.

On Thursday, Spaceweather.com reported that a “strong G3-class geomagnetic storm is possible on October 30, when the CME from yesterday’s X-flare is expected to hit Earth’s magnetic field.” This is why the predicted planetary A index on October 30-31 is 40 and 35.

At 0129 UTC on October 29, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued this geomagnetic disturbance warning: “[Sunspot] AR2887 produced X1.0 flare on October 28 at 1535 UTC, which triggered a halo CME. The CME is expected to arrive at Earth in the first half of UTC day 30 October. As a result, the geomagnetic conditions are expected to reach major storm levels with a chance of severe storm periods. The global Kp index may reach 7 (G-3 level storms). On the local night of 30 October (and maybe 31 October), aurora may be visible from Tasmania and the southern mainland coastal areas. INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION 30 – 31 OCTOBER 2021.”

This weekend is the CQ World Wide SSB DX Contest, which should be affected by the increased geomagnetic activity. The CW weekend is November 27 – 28. ARRL November CW Sweepstakes is next weekend, November 6 – 8.

Here’s the geomagnetic activity forecast for October 29 – November 23 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:

quiet on November 4 – 5, 18 – 19

quiet to unsettled on October 31, November 9, 12 – 13, 17, 20, 22

quiet to active on October 29, November 1 – 3, 10 – 11, 21, 23

unsettled to active on October 30, November 6 – 8, 14, 16

Active to disturbed November (15)

Solar wind will intensify on October 30 – 31, November 1, (8,)

9 – 10, (11,) 16 – 17

Remarks: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

Don’t miss the latest video from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

Mike May, WB8VLC, in Salem, Oregon, reported his contacts on the high HF bands until October 27. He listed only the “interesting QSOs” as there were just too many others from 17 to 10 meters to include. One was an AM contact on 15 on October 24 at 1640 UTC with CT1EHI in Portugal. Signals were solid both ways, he reported.

Another was D4F [Cape Verde] on 10-meter SSB, “the first real strong African-region signal heard in a long time here on 10 meters.”

Others he reported included the HD8R DXpedition in the Galapagos, which he worked on 17 meters at 0129 UTC on October 27. He also worked HD8R on 10, 12, and 15 meters on October 26; E51JD in the South Cook Islands on October 24 on 10 meters (SSB), and VE8WD/m the same day on 15 meters (SSB). “A nice QSO with a ham in Yellowknife running 100 W mobile. He was over S-9 for 2 hours after our contact.”

Here is a Canadian view on solar risks to the power grid, and more on this week’s space weather.

In a message with the subject line, “Good propagation these days,” Angel Santana, WP3GW, reported from Puerto Rico on October 26:

“Yesterday at about 1730 UTC, heard M5JON on 28.505 MHz, which was a surprise since it has been a long time since I heard an English station on 10 meters.” He reported an S-7 report. “Today contacted HD8R on 24.950 MHz split (up 5) up at 1851 UTC. I suppose and hope that the CQ WW SSB this weekend is why I am hearing much activity on all bands.”

Here’s part of a message from Frank Donovan, W3LPL:

“Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal until likely CME arrival early to mid-day Saturday, then mostly below normal at least until mid-day Sunday.

=“We are in the geomagnetically active autumn equinox season through late October with about twice as many geomagnetically active days compared to December, January, June, and July caused by the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) more frequently persisting in a southward orientation (–Bz).

“Geomagnetic disturbances caused by coronal hole high speed stream effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent through at least late 2021. The southward oriented (–Bz) component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms.

“Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (–Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream.

“More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (–Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.

“Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 56 minutes earlier and day length is 90 minutes shorter than it was on September 22. Daytime ionization and residual nighttime ionization in the far northern polar region is rapidly declining due to steadily increasing polar night effects.”

Sunspot numbers for October 21 – 27 were 11, 28, 32, 46, 81, 95, and 91, with a mean of 54.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 81.9, 86.9, 86.8, 93.2, 100.6, 109.3, and 110.9, with a mean of 95.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 4, 3, 4, 5, 5, and 3, with a mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 9, 3, 2, 2, 4, 3, and 2, with a mean of 3.6.

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Of course the MSM will report dire consequences to the power grid and the end-of-the-world, but we Hams know better ..... don't we?

72 de Larry W2LJ

QRP - When you care to send the very best!

Recharging

I have the day off today for a little expanded Independence Day weekend. So in addition to recharging myself, I'm also topping off my deep cycle battery after Field Day.

That's Harold, stretched out on the grass, enjoying a little sunshine as well.

I didn't work either Fox in the 20 Meter QRP Foxhunt last evening. Steve WX2S, who is just 18 miles away from me was just too close for 20 Meters. Brian K0DTJ in California was a whisper all evening - perhaps 229 at best. He wasn't loud enough to send my call and perhaps QRM someone who had a legitimate shot at working him.

So I twiddled the dial and worked 5 Colonies in the space of about 20 minutes. K2K in New Hampshire on 160 Meters, K2E in Delaware on 40 Meters, K2I in New Jersey, K2H in Massachuesetts, and K2D in Connecticut all on 80 Meters - and I wasn't even trying real hard. And all with 5 Watts.

Don't know if I'm going to continue to hunt down the remaining eight. We'll see how the weekend progresses.

72 de Larry W2LJ
QRP - When you care to send the very least!

All WX Solar Powered Amateur Radio Field Station

Julian OH8STN is featured on my blog roll, to the right. Just a few days ago, he made a video about operating a field station totally from solar power, off the grid.  The South Plainfield Amateur Radio Club does this every Field Day, by using solar power to charge up our batteries. Our radios run from this power source for the entire 24 hours.

Last year, I purchased a portable, brief case type of solar panel, along with a charge controller in order to accomplish the same goal.  I haven't taken it out to the field yet, but I have used it from the back yard; and I know it will work if needed in an emergency situation.

72 de Larry W2LJ

QRP - When you care to send the very least!